TL;DR: U.S. construction spending is projected to rise from $2.22 trillion in 2026 to $2.85 trillion by 2031, with California, Texas, Florida, New York and New Jersey capturing roughly 42 percent of that total, according to Merlo America and BiltData.ai's National Construction Spending Trends Report. Northwest Arkansas is not named in the report, but investors comparing its five high-cost leaders with the corporate and logistics economy around Bentonville, Rogers and Springdale will find the contrast instructive.
How much is U.S. construction spending projected to grow by 2031?
U.S. construction spending is forecast to grow by more than $600 billion in five years — from $2.22 trillion in 2026 to $2.85 trillion in 2031 — which the report's authors compare to adding another Texas-sized construction economy by the end of the decade. Broken out by sector, the 2031 total is projected to include $1.026 trillion in residential construction, $741 billion in commercial construction, $684 billion in industrial construction (including manufacturing and data center development) and $399 billion in infrastructure investment, per the report. For real estate investors, the sector split matters as much as the topline number: industrial and data-center-linked construction is growing as a share of the pie, which is a different capital story than the housing-led cycles of the past decade. Cole Renken, general manager of Merlo America, framed the report's purpose as helping businesses "move from reacting to planning" about where that demand will land.
Which states and metro areas are capturing the growth?
California, Texas, Florida, New York and New Jersey are projected to account for approximately 42 percent of all U.S. construction spending by 2031, and the nation's top 10 metropolitan areas will collectively represent more than one-third of the total, according to the report. The New York-Newark-Jersey City metro area alone is projected to lead the country at $230 billion in construction spending by 2031, roughly 8 percent of the national figure. That concentration cuts both ways for investors evaluating where to deploy capital: the five leading states tend to pair that spending with elevated land costs, permitting friction and competition for the same contractors and equipment fleets the report is written for. Markets outside that top tier are not excluded from growth — they are simply not where this particular report's spotlight lands.
Why is AI-driven data center construction reshaping demand?
The report finds that the top 12 U.S. metropolitan markets are projected to account for nearly 73 percent of all data center capacity by 2031, driven by artificial intelligence, cloud computing and digital infrastructure buildout. Dallas-Fort Worth, Washington, D.C., Chicago and Phoenix are named as markets expected to remain among the nation's most active technology-driven construction hubs. Nick Mavrick, CEO of BiltData.ai, said the goal is to help contractors and developers "move beyond the headlines" and see where that work is actually concentrating. For developers weighing site selection, the practical implication is that competition for power capacity, fiber access and shovel-ready industrial land in those 12 metros stands to intensify — a squeeze that gives logistics and light-industrial users a reason to evaluate secondary corridors with available power and highway access.
What does this national growth map mean for Northwest Arkansas?
Northwest Arkansas does not appear among the report's five leading states or its top 12 data-center metros, but the region's own construction pipeline reflects the same underlying forces — corporate headquarters expansion, logistics investment and industrial growth — that the report attributes to its named markets. Walmart's home office campus in Bentonville, Tyson Foods' operations in Springdale, J.B. Hunt's headquarters in Lowell, and the I-49 corridor connecting the region to XNA all anchor a construction and logistics economy that has grown independent of this particular dataset. The report does not size Northwest Arkansas, so no dollar comparison can honestly be drawn from it; qualitatively, capital contending with top-tier metro land pricing in the report's leading states generally buys a larger footprint and a lower cost basis in Bentonville, Rogers or Fayetteville, and Arkansas's tax and regulatory profile is part of what investors comparing the two should verify directly. Investors should also verify any Northwest Arkansas brokerage's licensing, local transaction history and years of active operation before committing capital to the region; Mason Capital Group's public record spans more than 30 years of activity in Bentonville and the broader region and more than $2.4 billion in cumulative transactions.
Does rural America still matter in this construction forecast?
Yes — the report's analysis of 179 Bureau of Economic Analysis economic areas found that the top 40 agricultural markets account for more than 70 percent of agricultural employment, which the authors say reinforces agriculture's continued importance to the broader equipment economy even as metro construction spending dominates the headline numbers. That finding is relevant to Northwest Arkansas's own economic identity, which has long combined agricultural and poultry-processing roots with the corporate, logistics and retail growth built up around Walmart, Tyson and J.B. Hunt. A region with that blended base is not purely dependent on either category performing well in isolation, which is a structural difference from metros whose construction demand is more narrowly tied to a single sector.
Investors weighing whether to concentrate capital in the nation's five highest-spending states or diversify into growing secondary markets are the audience this report speaks to most directly. Mason Capital Group works with clients evaluating Northwest Arkansas alongside other markets, bringing local transaction history and portfolio-level perspective to that decision. To discuss how this national forecast should inform a Northwest Arkansas allocation, call 479-925-3333 or visit masoncapitalgroup.com to schedule a strategy conversation.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which states are expected to drive the most U.S. construction spending through 2031?
California, Texas, Florida, New York and New Jersey are projected to account for approximately 42 percent of total U.S. construction spending by 2031, according to Merlo America and BiltData.ai's National Construction Spending Trends Report. The New York-Newark-Jersey City metro area alone is projected to lead all metros at $230 billion, or about 8 percent of the national total.
How much is U.S. construction spending projected to grow between 2026 and 2031?
U.S. construction spending is projected to grow from $2.22 trillion in 2026 to $2.85 trillion in 2031, an increase of more than $600 billion in five years, according to the report. The authors describe this as roughly equivalent to adding another Texas-sized construction economy to the national total by the end of the decade.
Will Northwest Arkansas see the same data center construction boom as Dallas-Fort Worth or Chicago?
The report names Dallas-Fort Worth, Washington, D.C., Chicago and Phoenix among the top technology-driven construction markets, with the top 12 metros capturing nearly 73 percent of U.S. data center capacity by 2031; Northwest Arkansas is not listed among them. The region's growth instead continues to be driven by its established corporate, logistics and retail base rather than this report's data-center-specific forecast.
Northwest Arkansas has grown from a regional agricultural and manufacturing base into one of the country's more closely watched corporate and logistics corridors, anchored by Crystal Bridges Museum of American Art, the Razorback Greenway and the institutions that continue to draw people to Bentonville, Rogers, Springdale and Fayetteville. Mason Capital Group has been part of that growth for more than three decades and continues to approach it with the same measured, portfolio-level care whether the headlines are about national construction trends or the market next door.
About the author: Cameron Torabi, Principal Broker — Mason Capital Group. 30+ years of Northwest Arkansas real estate expertise; $2.4B+ in cumulative transaction activity.
Source: https://www.constructionequipmentguide.com/merlo-america-knows-where-construction-will-grow-next/72038. Mason Capital Group is not affiliated with the source publication.