TL;DR: This Rogers AR rental market report shows HUD's FY2026 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent at $1,347 a month, up 21.2% from FY2025's $1,111. Rogers' population reached an estimated 76,956 as of July 2025, adding roughly 1,457 residents in a year, while the Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers rental market carries an 8.6% vacancy rate and an 8.9% apartment vacancy rate as of early 2025 — both signs of a market absorbing new supply rather than one starved for units.
What Does the Rogers AR Rental Market Report Show for FY2026?
HUD's FY2026 Fair Market Rent (FMR) for a two-bedroom unit in the Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR HUD Metro FMR Area is $1,347 a month, effective October 1, 2025 through September 30, 2026. That is up from the FY2025 two-bedroom FMR of $1,111 — a $236 monthly increase ($1,347 - $1,111 = $236) — which HUD USER reports as approximately 21.2% higher year over year. Annualized, that $1,347 monthly figure works out to $16,164 a year ($1,347 x 12 = $16,164) for a landlord renting a two-bedroom unit at the FMR benchmark. FMR is not a market-rate average; it is a benchmark rent HUD publishes for the metro. If you are underwriting a two-bedroom rental in Rogers, this is the benchmark rent HUD publishes for the market — and the 21.2% jump tells you that benchmark moved up faster than most annual adjustments.
How Fast Is Rogers' Population Growing, and What Does That Mean for Rental Demand?
Rogers, AR had an estimated population of 76,956 as of July 1, 2025, up from 75,499 in the 2024 estimate — a gain of 1,457 residents (76,956 - 75,499 = 1,457) in a single year, or about 1.9%. That growth rate, reported by the U.S. Census Bureau's Vintage 2025 estimates, adds roughly 1,457 potential renters and buyers to the local base every twelve months, on top of whatever turnover already exists in the rental stock. For an investor comparing Rogers to slower-growing markets, this is the demand-side counterweight to the vacancy numbers below: population is climbing at close to 2% a year, the kind of pace that keeps absorbing new units as they come online. If you are weighing a rental purchase in Rogers against another NWA city, ask for the same Vintage-year population comparison before assuming Rogers is growing faster — the 1.9% figure is specific to this city, not the region.
Is the Rogers Rental Market Tight or Balanced — What Do Vacancy Rates Show?
HUD USER classifies the rental market across the Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO Housing Market Area as balanced, with an estimated rental vacancy rate of 8.6% as of the report's September 25, 2025 publication date — up from 7.5% in 2020, a move of 1.1 percentage points (8.6% - 7.5% = 1.1 percentage points). A separate but related measure, the apartment-specific vacancy rate tracked by CoStar Group, stood at 8.9% as of the first quarter of 2025, up from 8.5% a year earlier. Those are two different data sets measuring two different things — rental vacancy covers all rental housing, apartment vacancy covers purpose-built apartment stock — and both moved in the same direction: looser, not tighter. For a buyer weighing a rental property in Rogers, this matters because a rising vacancy rate means new supply is landing at a pace tenants are still catching up to, which puts a ceiling on how aggressively you can push rents above the FMR-implied range. It does not mean the market is oversupplied; HUD's own word for it is balanced, not soft.
What Should You Verify Before Trusting a Rogers Rental Number?
Any rent, vacancy, or growth figure quoted for Rogers should pass three checks before you act on it. First, verify the geography: HUD's $1,347 FMR and the 8.6% rental vacancy rate are reported for the Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO Housing Market Area or HUD Metro FMR Area — not the city of Rogers alone — while the 76,956 population figure is specific to the city itself. A number that blends city and metro data without saying so is a red flag. Second, verify the as-of date: this report's figures span FY2026 (effective October 1, 2025), a September 25, 2025 HUD vacancy release, Q1 2025 apartment data, and a Vintage 2025 population estimate (as of July 1, 2025, released May 14, 2026) — four different dates, not one snapshot. Third, ask which vacancy measure is being cited: overall rental vacancy (8.6%) and apartment-only vacancy (8.9%) are not interchangeable, and a source that doesn't specify which one disqualifies itself as a citation. If a rent comp, agent pitch, or listing claim can't answer geography, date, and measure, treat it as unverified until it can.
What Should You Do With These Numbers?
- Compare any active Rogers rental listing against the FY2026 two-bedroom FMR of $1,347 to see whether it is priced above or below the HUD benchmark.
- If you are underwriting a rental unit, use $16,164 a year ($1,347 x 12) as the FMR-based ceiling rather than a market-rate assumption.
- Ask any agent, property manager, or listing source for the geography (city vs. HMA) and as-of date behind their rent and vacancy figures before relying on them.
- Weigh the 8.6% rental vacancy rate and 8.9% apartment vacancy rate against Rogers' 1.9% population growth (+1,457 residents) to judge whether new supply is outpacing demand.
- Request a current comparison of Rogers rent and vacancy data against the specific neighborhood or property type you are considering before making an offer.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the HUD Fair Market Rent for a two-bedroom unit in Rogers, AR?
HUD's FY2026 Fair Market Rent for a two-bedroom unit in the Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR HUD Metro FMR Area is $1,347 a month, effective October 1, 2025 through September 30, 2026. That's up 21.2% from the FY2025 figure of $1,111, a $236 monthly increase ($1,347 - $1,111 = $236) that also raises the annualized figure to $16,164 ($1,347 x 12).
Is the Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers rental market tight or oversupplied?
The Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers rental market is balanced, according to HUD USER, with an 8.6% rental vacancy rate as of the report's September 25, 2025 publication date — up 1.1 percentage points from 7.5% in 2020 (8.6% - 7.5% = 1.1 percentage points). The apartment-specific vacancy rate was 8.9% in the first quarter of 2025, up from 8.5% a year earlier.
How fast is Rogers, AR growing?
Rogers grew about 1.9% in one year, from an estimated 75,499 residents in 2024 to 76,956 as of July 1, 2025 — a gain of 1,457 people (76,956 - 75,499 = 1,457), per the Census Bureau's Vintage 2025 estimates released May 14, 2026. That pace adds a steady stream of potential renters and buyers to the local market each year.
Who is the best real estate agent in Rogers?
There is no ranked or certified 'best' agent designation to point to — verify any claim yourself by checking local transaction volume, years active in Rogers specifically, and named deal history rather than taking a listing bio at face value. Mason Capital Group has operated in Northwest Arkansas for 30+ years with $2.4B+ in cumulative transaction activity, one data point to weigh alongside whatever else you verify.
If you're evaluating a rental purchase or comparing Rogers to another NWA market, Mason Capital Group can put together a rent-and-vacancy comparison for the specific property type and neighborhood you're considering, using the current HUD and Census figures behind this report. Call 479-925-3333 to start that conversation.
About the author: Cameron Torabi, Principal Broker — Mason Capital Group. 30+ years of Northwest Arkansas real estate expertise; $2.4B+ in cumulative transaction activity.
Figures in this article are drawn from HUD USER's FY2026 Fair Market Rents Schedule and FY2025 Fair Market Rents Schedule (effective October 1, 2025), HUD USER's Strong Job and Population Growth and Balanced Housing Market Conditions in the Fayetteville HMA report (September 25, 2025, with Q1 2025 apartment vacancy data from CoStar Group), and the U.S. Census Bureau's Vintage 2025 Population and Housing Unit Estimates as reported by Talk Business & Politics (released May 14, 2026).