TL;DR: Zillow publishes Arkansas-specific Zestimate error rates that show how accurate a Zestimate is for selling a house in Arkansas: a median error of 1.65% for on-market homes and 8.43% for off-market homes (Zillow state table, refreshed September 30, 2026), against 1.77% and 7.20% nationally. On Benton County's 1H 2026 average sale price of $465,888, an 8.43% miss is $39,274; on Washington County's $423,750 it is $35,722. Set your list price from recent comparable sales rather than from an online estimate.
How accurate is a Zillow Zestimate for selling a house in Arkansas?
Zillow's own accuracy page states that the nationwide median error rate for the Zestimate is 1.77% for homes that are on the market and 7.20% for off-market homes. The table was last refreshed September 30, 2026, and the page says it updates monthly.
Zillow's state table gives Arkansas its own rates: 1.65% on-market across 23,100 homes and 8.43% off-market across 1.1 million homes. Only 55.74% of Arkansas off-market Zestimates landed within 10% of the sale price. The metro table does not include the Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers metro, so the Arkansas state figures are the closest published rates for a Northwest Arkansas seller.
A median error also means that half of Zestimates miss by more than the stated rate. An Arkansas home in the upper half of the error distribution is off by more than 1.65% on-market, or more than 8.43% off-market.
For a seller still weighing whether to list, the number that matters is 8.43%, Zillow's Arkansas off-market rate, because your home is not yet on the market. If you are using a Zestimate to decide on a list price, you are relying on the less accurate of the two published Arkansas figures, and it is less accurate than the 7.20% national off-market figure.
What does an 8.43% error mean in dollars on a Benton or Washington County home?
Start with the sold prices. The 1H 2026 Arvest Skyline Report, prepared by the Walton College CBER at the University of Arkansas, reports an average (not median) sale price of $465,888 in Benton County, where Bentonville, Rogers and Lowell sit. Washington County, which includes Fayetteville, came in at $423,750. These are county averages, so they illustrate scale; they are not a price for your specific house.
Here is what Zillow's Arkansas rates come to on those averages:
- Benton County on-market: $465,888 x 1.65% = about $7,687
- Benton County off-market: $465,888 x 8.43% = about $39,274
- Washington County on-market: $423,750 x 1.65% = about $6,992
- Washington County off-market: $423,750 x 8.43% = about $35,722
Pricing a Benton County home 8.43% too high leaves it sitting while buyers compare it against cheaper listings. Pricing it 8.43% too low gives that money to the buyer. Either way the error is yours, not Zillow's.
The same rates scale with the city. Using Skyline's 1H 2026 city average sale prices (averages, not medians): Bentonville at $549,317 x 8.43% = $46,307 off-market and x 1.65% = $9,064 on-market; Rogers at $551,767 x 8.43% = $46,514; Fayetteville at $432,635 x 8.43% = $36,471; and Springdale at $383,360 x 8.43% = $32,317. On a Bentonville or Rogers home near the city average, a median-size off-market miss is $46,307 to $46,514, and half of Arkansas off-market Zestimates miss by more than the median rate.
Why do local conditions matter more than the Zestimate right now?
In the 1H 2026 Skyline Report (reported by Talk Business & Politics, August 2026), Benton County's average sale price fell 1.2% from 1H 2025 and Washington County's rose 1.5% from 1H 2025. Realtor.com asking prices, measured September 2026 against September 2025, fell in Benton County and were flat in Washington County. The Realtor.com median listing price in Benton County was $460,600 in September 2026, against $466,975 in September 2025. In Washington County it was $399,563, against $399,925 a year earlier. Those are asking prices, and they sit alongside the Skyline averages without matching them, since one is a median of listings and the other an average of closed sales.
Competition is growing. Benton County had 2,441 active listings in September 2026, up from 1,832 in September 2025, which is 609 more homes for buyers to choose from. Washington County went from 896 active listings in September 2025 to 1,157 in September 2026, which is 261 more. Time to sell has lengthened too. Skyline reports an average of 115 days on market for houses sold in Benton County in 1H 2026, against 98 in the second half of 2025, which is 17 days longer. Washington County averaged 101 days, 3 more than the 98 days of the second half of 2025.
City figures vary widely. For 1H 2026 Skyline lists Bentonville at an average $549,317 and 123 days, Rogers at $551,767 and 85 days, Fayetteville at $432,635 and 95 days, and Springdale at $383,360 and 98 days. A single Zestimate cannot reflect gaps that large between neighboring cities.
If you are selling in Benton County, an overpriced list price now costs you time as well as money, since the average sold house already took 115 days.
What should you do with these numbers?
- Write down your Zestimate and note whether Zillow treats your home as on-market or off-market. Before listing, apply Zillow's 8.43% Arkansas off-market rate (September 2026) to see what a median-size miss means in dollars for your home, and remember that half of Arkansas off-market Zestimates miss by more.
- Gather the closed sales from your own neighborhood or subdivision, sorted by date, and compare condition, lot and square footage. Closed prices outrank any online estimate.
- Compare your likely range against active competition. With 2,441 Benton County listings and 1,157 in Washington County in September 2026, buyers have options, and your price must stand out among them.
- Build your timeline around the Skyline averages, 115 days in Benton County and 101 in Washington County for 1H 2026, rather than a hoped-for quick sale.
- Ask for a written pricing opinion that shows the comparable sales behind each number, then price from that.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does Zillow publish a Zestimate error rate for Arkansas?
Yes. Zillow's state table (refreshed September 30, 2026) shows an Arkansas median error of 1.65% for on-market homes and 8.43% for off-market homes, against 1.77% and 7.20% nationally. Zillow's Arkansas state rates are the closest published Zestimate error rates for a Northwest Arkansas seller, so pair them with local comparable sales.
Should I list my house at its Zestimate?
No, use the Zestimate as one input and let recent closed sales set the price. Zillow's Arkansas off-market median error is 8.43% (September 2026), which is $39,274 on Benton County's 1H 2026 average sale price of $465,888, and half of Arkansas off-market Zestimates miss by more. Comparable closed sales in your neighborhood narrow that range far better than a statewide estimate.
How many dollars can a Zestimate miss by on a Washington County home?
On Washington County's 1H 2026 average sale price of $423,750, a median off-market miss of 8.43% is $35,722, and an on-market miss of 1.65% is $6,992. Both use Zillow's Arkansas median rates from September 2026, so half of Zestimates miss by more than these amounts. Closed comparable sales near your home are the better guide.
For a written pricing opinion for your home that sets recent closed comparables in your neighborhood against your Zestimate and Zillow's published 8.43% Arkansas off-market median error, call Mason Capital Group at 479-925-3333 for a first conversation.
About the author: Cameron Torabi, Principal Broker — Mason Capital Group. 30+ years of Northwest Arkansas real estate expertise; $2.4B+ in cumulative transaction activity (estimated).
Figures in this article are drawn from Zillow's Zestimate accuracy page, national and States tables (refreshed September 30, 2026), the Arvest Skyline Report 1H 2026 from the University of Arkansas Walton College CBER and Talk Business & Politics coverage (reported August 2026), and Realtor.com Housing Inventory data via FRED (September 2026).